Thursday, August 16, 2018

The Chinese Trade War -- Another Reader's Perspective -- August 16, 2018

This is off the subject but it's too long to place on the main blog and it's too good not to share with readers.

For background see this post, and specifically this from that post:
  • most recently, about four weeks ago (?), Scott Adams mentioned in passing but very clearly stated that China will blink / acquiesce / drop tariffs / come back to the bargaining table once we see one or two large banks in China fail -- Scott Adams didn't pick that out of thin air -- his source was impeccable, no doubt, only because it seemed to be such an odd prognostication
I vaguely recall that Scott Adams has banking experience, and at a fairly high level. Anyway, back to the reader's comments.

Unedited, from a reader:

Reading Scott Adams' remarks on Chinese banks gave me a chill.

Years ago, we were Trustee for NM companies and quasi-governmental agencies that issued publicly traded bonds. The transactions were typically 30-year deals at a fixed rate.  (They quickly evolved into more nimble terms as the market changed - but this is earlier on)

So, it was paramount to do anything that could be done on the front end to lower the interest rate.  In the late 1980's, we saw a lot of issuers buy Letters of Credit from the large Japanese banks - Sanwa, Dai Ichi, Fuji, Sumitomo, Long Term Credit Bank of Japan.  The issuers had to pay a fee, of course, but the bondholders were paid by a draw on the Letter of Credit (subsequently reimbursed by the Issuer)  That little two-step complicated our role as Trustee, increased fees for everyone, but still had a long-range payoff. 

Anyway, I closed a fair number of transactions with that structure and met some fairly senior folks in the process.  To a man, (they were all men)- they had come from families that were connected.  Undoubtedly bright and well-educated, there was nonetheless an element of heredity responsible for their positions.  They were insufferable.  I had initially given a wide leeway - imagining what I'd do if the shoe were on the other foot.  The documents for these transactions were hard enough to wade through in my native language.  I could not imagine trying to do it in Japanese (;>)  I repeatedly learned that that wasn't the issue.  They had a haughty disdain for American finance in general (after all, they were providing the Letter of Credit linchpin) and they would tie themselves in knots trying to deal with my attorney instead of me.  He (a Yale grad) would say "Oh, that's a business question, you'll have to talk to the banker.  I'm just here to advise her on any potential legal matters".   We were able to get every transaction funded, but there were times it was dicey - down-to-the-wire.

So, there was sort of a sour taste in the Issuer's mouths, but it was what had to be done..... for less than 5 years.  The Japanese banks got too big for their britches and imploded.  Folks had rued the day that the Japanese bought Rockefeller Center.  I told everybody to relax.  The Scots and English owned all the big ranches - and then they didn't.  (Isn't the Marquis de Mores/Medora story fascinating?).  I didn't know how quickly the candle would burn out, but I had to work with anybody that could get financing for my clients, and I didn't care if they were Martians.  When the Japanese banks failed/contracted/left with their tails tucked, there were several news accounts of suicides.  We watched for one particular name, but he must have lived through it.  ha!  

I'll link the story to the failure of LTCB - but I have to say that very shortly after the J banks' failures, a well-known Japanese manufacturing company came to NM and built a nice plant.  Their representatives were absolutely a delight to work with.  You could tell there was a culture challenge, but these guys were all about getting the job done.  We were invited to the grand opening of the plant.  The NM lead guy had imported barrels of sake and there was quite a ceremony.  We drank from square wooden cups that had a Japanese glyph burned into one side.  I asked what the symbol meant.  He said "White Deer".  I thought that might be a lucky symbol akin to our rabbit foot or shamrock.  He said "no, like American Johnny Walker".  (;>)  Great experience to offset those of the high-handed bankers.  It was my impression that these manufacturing guys didn't even like the Japanese banks.  There were several comments made throughout the years that indicated they were surprised at how much we tried to expedite anything possible for our clients.

So - here's the story of LTCB.  Many of the other J banks had big trouble as their commercial real estate business hit the skids.  If the Chinese banks fail - there will be suicides - that's what caused my chills.  High stakes.


Friday, August 10, 2018

Early Wayzetta Wells Have Been Updated -- August 10, 2018

This page will not be updated.

The Wayzetta wells are updated below.

The Wayzetta wells are tracked here. At the link, scroll down to the Wayzetta wells.

These 34 wells were permitted prior to 2013, most of these wells were drilled between 2008 and 2010, inclusive.

Many (most?) of these wells are short laterals.

I have highlighted (put in bold) the permit numbers for those wells have have gone above one-half million bbls of oil. Note that some have produced upwards of 700,000 and even 800,000 bbls of oil. Most of these wells have reached "final" steady state and are unlikely to decline much more on a monthly basis in the near term. I am not aware of any of these wells having been re-fracked.

The Bakken wells drilled before 2013, as a rule, will produce for 30 years. Newer wells, those drilled after 2015, will generally produce, as a rule, for 35 years.

The wells:

18315, AB/102, t4/12; cum 80K 1/16;
18301, AB/68, t12/09; cum 130K 5/16;
19125, 547, t10/10; cum 87K 6/18; -- outlier
17019, 732, t6/09; cum 529K 6/18;
18863, PNC, Wayzetta 106-17H,
20242, PNC, Wayzetta 107-29H,
18767, 345, t7/10; cum 114K 6/18;
17127, 1,714, t11/08; cum 739K 6/18;
17083, 956, t9/08; cum 446K 6/18;
20541, AB, t6/14;7K cum 3/15;
17142, 1,055, t9/08; cum 597K 6/18;
21378, A/IA/663, t3/12; cum 392K 6/18; inactive 6/14; back on status 12/14;
17281, 1,320, t10/08; cum 466K 6/18;
19186, IA/139, t11/10; cum 38K 6/18; -- outlier?
17028, 2,207, t10/08; cum 647K 6/18;
19317, IAW/213, t11/10; cum 54K 715; -- outlier?
17152, 937, t7/09; cum 670K 6/18;
21239, 1,315, t3/12; cum 829K 6/18;
21194, 775, t3/12; cum 440K 6/18;
17834, 839, t7/09; cum 509K 6/18;
17732, 895, t6/09; cum 462K 6/18;
17129, 610, t12/08; cum 563K 6/18;
17121, 800, t8/09; cum 509K 6/18;
17366, 553, t11/08; cum 509K 6/18;
16973, 1,252, t6/08; cum 446K 6/18;
16784, 1,565, t5/08; cum 558K 6/18;
17170, 667, t7/08; cum 492K 6/18;
17042, 492, t11/08; cum 540K 6/18;
17044, 1,519, t11/08; cum 549K 6/18;
16991, 1,383, t7/08; cum 826K 6/18;
16733, SWD,
18807, 467, t6/10; cum 76K 6/18; was taken off-line 3/16; came back on line 3/18;
18850, 195, t7/10; cum 105K 6/18; came off line 1/17; back on line 3/18;
22689, 1,910, t2/13; cum 730K 6/18; 50K at time of original frack back in 2013; 54 stages; 11.2 million lbs; a long lateral;

18808, AB/665, t11/10; cum 120K 10/14;
22704, 926, t1/13; cum 623K 6/18;
17478, 238, t9/09; cum 473K 6/18;
22703, 1,185, t1/13; cum 391K 6/18;
16961, 1,064, t4/08; cum 585K 6/18;

The graphic:

CLR Vardon -- Parent Well

See this post for background.


The well:
  • 20354, 1,200, CLR, Vardon 1-14H, Siverston, t7/11; cum 298K 6/18; full production at this post; note production when this well came back on line; not re-fracked:
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20182720300204431417532135223739433
BAKKEN5-201831327443252521086447381954825190
BAKKEN4-20187489649032319331410362278
BAKKEN3-201867904730828622
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-2017297970000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-201717875115418216051227378
BAKKEN8-20173116041615403346234620
BAKKEN7-20173117111602455370137010
BAKKEN6-20173017271871438356635660
BAKKEN5-201731186318295632905285055
BAKKEN4-20173015091394390202120210
BAKKEN3-2017319079252801396129997
BAKKEN2-2017281111117323224282308120
BAKKEN1-2017311655181138531072129978
BAKKEN12-2016311741161144032342875359
BAKKEN11-20163017691639428363936390
BAKKEN10-20163121052310574389038900
BAKKEN9-20163017451569365256825680
BAKKEN8-2016156626904067427420
BAKKEN7-20163116511611378396239620
BAKKEN6-2016301501159541233203180140
BAKKEN5-20163117762032408407240720
BAKKEN4-2016301793156743239803870110
BAKKEN3-201631214920515024311428130
BAKKEN2-2016291323135223624852065420
BAKKEN1-20163112951587183280928090
BAKKEN12-201531183616204494108403870
BAKKEN11-20153018071853403417641760
BAKKEN10-20153118651813418443044300
BAKKEN9-20153018031819400421442140
BAKKEN8-20153119141959522441732721145
BAKKEN7-2015311941198443042103380830
BAKKEN6-2015301892183042543484203145
BAKKEN5-20153120221784472473347330
BAKKEN4-201530197922464404573451360
BAKKEN3-201531207722994374788475830
BAKKEN2-20152819861645475421242120
BAKKEN1-20153121332109497396225431419
BAKKEN12-20143124202756612508550850
BAKKEN11-2014262046211443736963425271
BAKKEN10-20143123342003577549354930
BAKKEN9-2014302280273360056205313307
BAKKEN8-201431265926579736531648150
BAKKEN7-20143121771769152852915004287
BAKKEN6-20143024962500583646152541207
BAKKEN5-2014312725316959560735873200
BAKKEN4-20143024772446468408740870
BAKKEN3-2014312513218950350124602410
BAKKEN2-201428229924614954568448880
BAKKEN1-20143126092404523512151210
BAKKEN12-20133126842746543491937641155
BAKKEN11-20133025122488495461146110
BAKKEN10-20133027902631642477747770
BAKKEN9-2013302564249986546274197430
BAKKEN8-20133127232646533524814383810
BAKKEN7-20133128603048590528852880
BAKKEN6-2013302978302558349894729260
BAKKEN5-2013312741280049746264403223
BAKKEN4-20133030012652582484348430
BAKKEN3-2013313216362860249274807120
BAKKEN2-2013181959162544841483698450
BAKKEN1-20133132403430752808180810
BAKKEN12-20123132923320840906390630
BAKKEN11-20123037553644880945594550
BAKKEN10-2012233590341573045254025500
BAKKEN9-20122835803806842914391430
BAKKEN8-20123144254718107310232102320
BAKKEN7-20122747414217124363326182150
BAKKEN6-20122126672839652689368930
BAKKEN5-20123152715289118211475114750
BAKKEN4-20123051485211109896308980650
BAKKEN3-20123157555699124511547115470
BAKKEN2-20122961126001137713026130260
BAKKEN1-20123179018333188017436174360
BAKKEN12-201131990996251938213472130443
BAKKEN11-201130100781015017681673116602129
BAKKEN10-2011311006110066177116922116625260
BAKKEN9-201130120771206422721390139
BAKKEN8-20113183298260162711562011562
BAKKEN7-2011311426214766456623030023030
BAKKEN6-2011313444189548060806

Sunday, August 5, 2018

The Lougheed And Airport Wells On North Side Of Williston --August 5, 2018

This should be interest to all Willistonites. This well has not been re-fracked:
  • 20282, 2,671, Statoil, Williston Airport 2-11 1-H, Todd, t10/11; cum 301K 6/18; note production profile at this post:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201827498049391141545254399126
BAKKEN5-2018182969316371792724262995
BAKKEN4-201828596958431363663696145224
BAKKEN3-2018304384431698641316312340823
BAKKEN2-201828419741981109060505314736
BAKKEN1-201831673469211931117775161901585
BAKKEN12-2017256503631617513909772711826
BAKKEN11-2017145427535517081758058411739
BAKKEN10-201711131113086379789634155
BAKKEN9-2017302398238612427000
BAKKEN8-201731000000
BAKKEN7-201731000000
BAKKEN6-201730000000
BAKKEN5-20177000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-201630000900
BAKKEN10-20160000000
BAKKEN9-201630000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-20160000000
BAKKEN1-20160000000
BAKKEN12-20150000000
BAKKEN11-20150000000
BAKKEN10-201511007504271061060
BAKKEN9-201530227723492587245624533
BAKKEN8-20153121562171271323562104252

Friday, August 3, 2018

Random Update Of MRO's 16XXX Permits In Bailey Oil Field -- August 3, 2018

Data as of 9:57 a.m. CDT, August 3, 2018.

All 16XXX permits, MRO, Bailey oil field.

This was done quickly. Factual and typographical errors likely but gives me an idea of what MRO is doing in Bailey oil field and which wells to check out.

A "small jump" in production suggests the well was not refracked but had a small but definite jump in production after being off-line for a short period of time.

A "large jump" in production almost always suggests the well was re-fracked. There were several huge refracks in 2017 for wells originally drilled/completed in 2008.

16187
3302500580
A
8/15/2017
NWNE 14-146-94
CONNOLLY 31-14H
BAILEY
Off-line; returns 6/18
Small Jump
Large Jump
16221
3302500584
TA
1/31/2018
SWSE 35-146-94
CONNOLLY 34-35H
BAILEY
TA


16234
3302500586
PNC
9/6/2006
SESW 34-146-94
TUHY 24-34H
BAILEY
PNC


16327
3302500596
A
7/15/2018
SWSW 21-146-94
BENZ 14-21H
BAILEY
Off-line; returns 6/18
6/16

16333
3302500597
IA
6/15/2018
NENW 3-146-94
STOHLER 21-3H
BAILEY
Off-line;
7/15

16365
3302500598
A
2/21/2007
NWNE 27-146-94
RECKARD 31-27H
BAILEY

9/15

16372
3302500600
A
4/15/2017
SWSE 33-146-94
KLATT 34-33H
BAILEY



16393
3302500602
TA
1/31/2018
LOT 3 2-146-94
BUEHNER SWD 1
BAILEY
TA


16459
3302500610
A
6/15/2017
LOT 1 4-146-94
OSCAR STOHLER 41-4H
BAILEY


6/17
16582
3302500622
A
7/5/2007
NENW 2-145-94
KNUTSON 21-2H
BAILEY



16611
3302500626
A
9/27/2007
NENW 29-146-94
CARLSON 21-29H
BAILEY


6/15
16654
3302500633
A
3/15/2018
SWSE 12-146-94
BUEHNER 34-12H
BAILEY



16666
3302500634
A
10/16/2008
SESE 19-146-94
BOB TUHY 44-19H
BAILEY


6/15
16677
3302500636
A
7/15/2017
SWSW 8-146-94
BECK 24-8H
BAILEY


10/17
16704
3302500642
A
5/15/2017
SWSE 32-146-93
DARCY 34-32H
BAILEY


5/17
16715
3302500644
A
9/30/2007
LOT 1 18-146-93
KEVIN BUEHNER 11-18H
BAILEY



16726
3302500646
A
10/27/2007
SESW 21-146-94
BENZ 24-21H
BAILEY


2/16
16729
3302500647
A
11/9/2007
SESE 8-146-93
VIHON 44-8H
BAILEY


11/12
16735
3302500649
A
5/15/2017
SWSW 8-146-94
BECK 14-8H
BAILEY


8/17
16736
3302500650
A
1/4/2008
NENW 25-146-94
BILL CONNOLLY 21-25H
BAILEY

3/14

16753
3302500655
A
6/13/2017
SWSE 34-146-93
REPP 34-34H
BAILEY


6/17
16758
3302500657
A
7/15/2018
LOT 3 4-144-94
SCHOLLMEYER 21-4H
BAILEY



16760
3302500659
PNC
12/10/2007
SESE 34-146-95
SCOTT BICE 44-34H
BAILEY
PNC


16764
3302500662
A
12/16/2010
SWSE 7-145-93
KNUDSVIG 34-7H
BAILEY



16807
3302500671
A
1/24/2008
NWNW 18-146-94
GEORGE TUHY 11-18H
BAILEY



16817
3302500673
A
5/13/2008
SWSE 36-145-94
CLARENCE SCHOLLMEYER 34-36H
BAILEY



16826
3302500674
PNC
6/21/2010
SESE 20-146-94
THOMPSON 44-20H
BAILEY
PNC


16853
3302500679
A
7/15/2018
SWSW 10-146-93
HANSEN RANCH 14-10H
BAILEY

4/15

16860
3302500681
IA
6/15/2018
LOT 1 3-146-94
STOHLER 41-3H
BAILEY
Off-line;


16868
3302500683
A
2/13/2008
SESW 7-145-93
KNUDSVIG 24-7H
BAILEY



16875
3302500684
A
6/15/2017
SWSW 23-146-94
TROTTER 14-23H
BAILEY


7/17
16909
3302500688
A
1/25/2008
NENE 14-145-94
LILY REISS 41-14H
BAILEY



16923
3302500692
A
8/15/2017
SWSW 19-145-93
APPLEDOORN 14-19H
BAILEY


10/17
16925
3302500693
A
7/7/2017
SWSW 9-145-93
MARY HANSEN 14-9H
BAILEY


7/17
16952
3302500699
A
9/15/2017
SWSE 33-146-93
CHRISTENSEN 34-33H
BAILEY


10/17
16964
3302500700
A
8/15/2017
NWNW 15-146-93
VOIGT 11-15H
BAILEY


10/17
16975
3302500702
A
6/15/2018
SWSE 24-145-94
ANGELITA SCHOLLMEYER 34-24H
BAILEY



16982
3302500705
A
5/16/2008
SWSW 9-146-93
PAULSON 14-9H
BAILEY


3/15
16992
3302500709
IA
8/15/2017
NWNE 18-146-93
KEVIN BUEHNER 31-18H
BAILEY
IA


16993
3302500710
A
4/15/2018
SESE 12-146-94
BUEHNER 44-12H
BAILEY

6/18