Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Two Wells With Jump In Production Without Re-Frack -- August 28, 2018 -- #20097; #23041

The well, according to FracFocus, never re-fracked:
  • 20097, 1,667, XTO, Lundin 11-15SEH, Siverston, API: 33-053-03396, 2 sections, t7/11; cum 291K 6/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-201800120000
BAKKEN2-201800990000
BAKKEN1-20183183608412602417921679211073
BAKKEN12-201726101489985106011481662168586
BAKKEN11-201700630000
BAKKEN10-20174217154337518817221113
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-201696491293436278926950
BAKKEN9-20163025412350150210559102710
BAKKEN8-2016312633269114538926862018
BAKKEN7-201631253626241451937190770
BAKKEN6-2016302649275915261022899350
BAKKEN5-201631302328461716107331041319
BAKKEN4-201630310732671589928189910
BAKKEN3-20163132002765160482607413463
BAKKEN2-201626338232141800795264561183
BAKKEN1-2016968510262801972179797
BAKKEN12-20153032793536156684657825270
BAKKEN11-20153031132887161184257804256
BAKKEN10-201531354337551832900686180
BAKKEN9-201529367836361813876384813
BAKKEN8-201531433944932071971094070
BAKKEN7-20152944893828305991278567282
BAKKEN6-2015151983241983437473358243
BAKKEN5-201530401841681816582428382716


The well:
  • 23041, 932, XTO, Gilbertson 41-16SEH, Siverston, 2 sections, API: 33-053-04164; t11/12; cum 198K 6/18; according to FracFocus never re-fracked:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20185527959118121512040
BAKKEN5-20182848415263320010614104570
BAKKEN4-201812392531622582793978650
BAKKEN3-2018100012120
BAKKEN2-2018394505431746390
BAKKEN1-20183180488211506717196169120
BAKKEN12-2017311063210453816922834225480
BAKKEN11-201728133371322812854246791194912469
BAKKEN10-20177249722167353722122264945
BAKKEN9-2017311721075299634499722462
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-2017202460650
BAKKEN6-2017301119119458033022810300
BAKKEN5-201731137811817083711347433
BAKKEN4-2017301355144469739083580130
BAKKEN3-2017311447132073543273884146
BAKKEN2-20172813451417674413338670
BAKKEN1-20173117141738855498446850

Thursday, August 16, 2018

The Chinese Trade War -- Another Reader's Perspective -- August 16, 2018

This is off the subject but it's too long to place on the main blog and it's too good not to share with readers.

For background see this post, and specifically this from that post:
  • most recently, about four weeks ago (?), Scott Adams mentioned in passing but very clearly stated that China will blink / acquiesce / drop tariffs / come back to the bargaining table once we see one or two large banks in China fail -- Scott Adams didn't pick that out of thin air -- his source was impeccable, no doubt, only because it seemed to be such an odd prognostication
I vaguely recall that Scott Adams has banking experience, and at a fairly high level. Anyway, back to the reader's comments.

Unedited, from a reader:

Reading Scott Adams' remarks on Chinese banks gave me a chill.

Years ago, we were Trustee for NM companies and quasi-governmental agencies that issued publicly traded bonds. The transactions were typically 30-year deals at a fixed rate.  (They quickly evolved into more nimble terms as the market changed - but this is earlier on)

So, it was paramount to do anything that could be done on the front end to lower the interest rate.  In the late 1980's, we saw a lot of issuers buy Letters of Credit from the large Japanese banks - Sanwa, Dai Ichi, Fuji, Sumitomo, Long Term Credit Bank of Japan.  The issuers had to pay a fee, of course, but the bondholders were paid by a draw on the Letter of Credit (subsequently reimbursed by the Issuer)  That little two-step complicated our role as Trustee, increased fees for everyone, but still had a long-range payoff. 

Anyway, I closed a fair number of transactions with that structure and met some fairly senior folks in the process.  To a man, (they were all men)- they had come from families that were connected.  Undoubtedly bright and well-educated, there was nonetheless an element of heredity responsible for their positions.  They were insufferable.  I had initially given a wide leeway - imagining what I'd do if the shoe were on the other foot.  The documents for these transactions were hard enough to wade through in my native language.  I could not imagine trying to do it in Japanese (;>)  I repeatedly learned that that wasn't the issue.  They had a haughty disdain for American finance in general (after all, they were providing the Letter of Credit linchpin) and they would tie themselves in knots trying to deal with my attorney instead of me.  He (a Yale grad) would say "Oh, that's a business question, you'll have to talk to the banker.  I'm just here to advise her on any potential legal matters".   We were able to get every transaction funded, but there were times it was dicey - down-to-the-wire.

So, there was sort of a sour taste in the Issuer's mouths, but it was what had to be done..... for less than 5 years.  The Japanese banks got too big for their britches and imploded.  Folks had rued the day that the Japanese bought Rockefeller Center.  I told everybody to relax.  The Scots and English owned all the big ranches - and then they didn't.  (Isn't the Marquis de Mores/Medora story fascinating?).  I didn't know how quickly the candle would burn out, but I had to work with anybody that could get financing for my clients, and I didn't care if they were Martians.  When the Japanese banks failed/contracted/left with their tails tucked, there were several news accounts of suicides.  We watched for one particular name, but he must have lived through it.  ha!  

I'll link the story to the failure of LTCB - but I have to say that very shortly after the J banks' failures, a well-known Japanese manufacturing company came to NM and built a nice plant.  Their representatives were absolutely a delight to work with.  You could tell there was a culture challenge, but these guys were all about getting the job done.  We were invited to the grand opening of the plant.  The NM lead guy had imported barrels of sake and there was quite a ceremony.  We drank from square wooden cups that had a Japanese glyph burned into one side.  I asked what the symbol meant.  He said "White Deer".  I thought that might be a lucky symbol akin to our rabbit foot or shamrock.  He said "no, like American Johnny Walker".  (;>)  Great experience to offset those of the high-handed bankers.  It was my impression that these manufacturing guys didn't even like the Japanese banks.  There were several comments made throughout the years that indicated they were surprised at how much we tried to expedite anything possible for our clients.

So - here's the story of LTCB.  Many of the other J banks had big trouble as their commercial real estate business hit the skids.  If the Chinese banks fail - there will be suicides - that's what caused my chills.  High stakes.


Friday, August 10, 2018

Early Wayzetta Wells Have Been Updated -- August 10, 2018

This page will not be updated.

The Wayzetta wells are updated below.

The Wayzetta wells are tracked here. At the link, scroll down to the Wayzetta wells.

These 34 wells were permitted prior to 2013, most of these wells were drilled between 2008 and 2010, inclusive.

Many (most?) of these wells are short laterals.

I have highlighted (put in bold) the permit numbers for those wells have have gone above one-half million bbls of oil. Note that some have produced upwards of 700,000 and even 800,000 bbls of oil. Most of these wells have reached "final" steady state and are unlikely to decline much more on a monthly basis in the near term. I am not aware of any of these wells having been re-fracked.

The Bakken wells drilled before 2013, as a rule, will produce for 30 years. Newer wells, those drilled after 2015, will generally produce, as a rule, for 35 years.

The wells:

18315, AB/102, t4/12; cum 80K 1/16;
18301, AB/68, t12/09; cum 130K 5/16;
19125, 547, t10/10; cum 87K 6/18; -- outlier
17019, 732, t6/09; cum 529K 6/18;
18863, PNC, Wayzetta 106-17H,
20242, PNC, Wayzetta 107-29H,
18767, 345, t7/10; cum 114K 6/18;
17127, 1,714, t11/08; cum 739K 6/18;
17083, 956, t9/08; cum 446K 6/18;
20541, AB, t6/14;7K cum 3/15;
17142, 1,055, t9/08; cum 597K 6/18;
21378, A/IA/663, t3/12; cum 392K 6/18; inactive 6/14; back on status 12/14;
17281, 1,320, t10/08; cum 466K 6/18;
19186, IA/139, t11/10; cum 38K 6/18; -- outlier?
17028, 2,207, t10/08; cum 647K 6/18;
19317, IAW/213, t11/10; cum 54K 715; -- outlier?
17152, 937, t7/09; cum 670K 6/18;
21239, 1,315, t3/12; cum 829K 6/18;
21194, 775, t3/12; cum 440K 6/18;
17834, 839, t7/09; cum 509K 6/18;
17732, 895, t6/09; cum 462K 6/18;
17129, 610, t12/08; cum 563K 6/18;
17121, 800, t8/09; cum 509K 6/18;
17366, 553, t11/08; cum 509K 6/18;
16973, 1,252, t6/08; cum 446K 6/18;
16784, 1,565, t5/08; cum 558K 6/18;
17170, 667, t7/08; cum 492K 6/18;
17042, 492, t11/08; cum 540K 6/18;
17044, 1,519, t11/08; cum 549K 6/18;
16991, 1,383, t7/08; cum 826K 6/18;
16733, SWD,
18807, 467, t6/10; cum 76K 6/18; was taken off-line 3/16; came back on line 3/18;
18850, 195, t7/10; cum 105K 6/18; came off line 1/17; back on line 3/18;
22689, 1,910, t2/13; cum 730K 6/18; 50K at time of original frack back in 2013; 54 stages; 11.2 million lbs; a long lateral;

18808, AB/665, t11/10; cum 120K 10/14;
22704, 926, t1/13; cum 623K 6/18;
17478, 238, t9/09; cum 473K 6/18;
22703, 1,185, t1/13; cum 391K 6/18;
16961, 1,064, t4/08; cum 585K 6/18;

The graphic:

CLR Vardon -- Parent Well

See this post for background.


The well:
  • 20354, 1,200, CLR, Vardon 1-14H, Siverston, t7/11; cum 298K 6/18; full production at this post; note production when this well came back on line; not re-fracked:
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20182720300204431417532135223739433
BAKKEN5-201831327443252521086447381954825190
BAKKEN4-20187489649032319331410362278
BAKKEN3-201867904730828622
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-2017297970000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-201717875115418216051227378
BAKKEN8-20173116041615403346234620
BAKKEN7-20173117111602455370137010
BAKKEN6-20173017271871438356635660
BAKKEN5-201731186318295632905285055
BAKKEN4-20173015091394390202120210
BAKKEN3-2017319079252801396129997
BAKKEN2-2017281111117323224282308120
BAKKEN1-2017311655181138531072129978
BAKKEN12-2016311741161144032342875359
BAKKEN11-20163017691639428363936390
BAKKEN10-20163121052310574389038900
BAKKEN9-20163017451569365256825680
BAKKEN8-2016156626904067427420
BAKKEN7-20163116511611378396239620
BAKKEN6-2016301501159541233203180140
BAKKEN5-20163117762032408407240720
BAKKEN4-2016301793156743239803870110
BAKKEN3-201631214920515024311428130
BAKKEN2-2016291323135223624852065420
BAKKEN1-20163112951587183280928090
BAKKEN12-201531183616204494108403870
BAKKEN11-20153018071853403417641760
BAKKEN10-20153118651813418443044300
BAKKEN9-20153018031819400421442140
BAKKEN8-20153119141959522441732721145
BAKKEN7-2015311941198443042103380830
BAKKEN6-2015301892183042543484203145
BAKKEN5-20153120221784472473347330
BAKKEN4-201530197922464404573451360
BAKKEN3-201531207722994374788475830
BAKKEN2-20152819861645475421242120
BAKKEN1-20153121332109497396225431419
BAKKEN12-20143124202756612508550850
BAKKEN11-2014262046211443736963425271
BAKKEN10-20143123342003577549354930
BAKKEN9-2014302280273360056205313307
BAKKEN8-201431265926579736531648150
BAKKEN7-20143121771769152852915004287
BAKKEN6-20143024962500583646152541207
BAKKEN5-2014312725316959560735873200
BAKKEN4-20143024772446468408740870
BAKKEN3-2014312513218950350124602410
BAKKEN2-201428229924614954568448880
BAKKEN1-20143126092404523512151210
BAKKEN12-20133126842746543491937641155
BAKKEN11-20133025122488495461146110
BAKKEN10-20133027902631642477747770
BAKKEN9-2013302564249986546274197430
BAKKEN8-20133127232646533524814383810
BAKKEN7-20133128603048590528852880
BAKKEN6-2013302978302558349894729260
BAKKEN5-2013312741280049746264403223
BAKKEN4-20133030012652582484348430
BAKKEN3-2013313216362860249274807120
BAKKEN2-2013181959162544841483698450
BAKKEN1-20133132403430752808180810
BAKKEN12-20123132923320840906390630
BAKKEN11-20123037553644880945594550
BAKKEN10-2012233590341573045254025500
BAKKEN9-20122835803806842914391430
BAKKEN8-20123144254718107310232102320
BAKKEN7-20122747414217124363326182150
BAKKEN6-20122126672839652689368930
BAKKEN5-20123152715289118211475114750
BAKKEN4-20123051485211109896308980650
BAKKEN3-20123157555699124511547115470
BAKKEN2-20122961126001137713026130260
BAKKEN1-20123179018333188017436174360
BAKKEN12-201131990996251938213472130443
BAKKEN11-201130100781015017681673116602129
BAKKEN10-2011311006110066177116922116625260
BAKKEN9-201130120771206422721390139
BAKKEN8-20113183298260162711562011562
BAKKEN7-2011311426214766456623030023030
BAKKEN6-2011313444189548060806