Sunday, July 21, 2019

The Bakken Derby -- Three Horses In The Lead -- July 21, 2019

The three wells:
  • 16059, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson field, t10/06; cum 1.727438 million bbls 5/19; still producing 4,000 bbls/month; it appears this well was never fracked (based on two corroborative forms in the file report); 
  • 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, API - 33-025-01259; t9/11; cum 1.597 million bbls 8/18; see production profile below; FracFocus: no re-frack; original frack, 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs sand; in addition to the 1.6 million bbls of oil, a cum of 1650315 MCF gas (275K boe natural gas -- so we're talking close to 2 million boe so far; [Update: this well went off-line 9/17, and did not come back on line until 8/18; in 8/18, only four days of production of 2,075 bbls which extrapolates to 15,000 bbls in one month;
  • 25374, 1,414, EOG, Austin 39-3204H, Parshall, 60 stages, 14.6 million lbs, 1920 acres, t9/13; cum 1,0449,497 bbls 5/19; according to FracFocus, fracked from 7/6/2013 to 8/8/2013; went off-line as of 9/18; F; back on line as of 11/18;
See these links:
Two recent posts discussing a couple of these "monster wells" (some links may be duplicates):
In reply to those two notes, a reader provided a fair amount of content. I did not want that information lost and I wanted to make it easier for readers to find, so I posted the reader's replies and the background data as a stand-alone post, here.

The notes below are what the reader sent me.

1st of 3 notes:
The well remains the #1 ND hz well. I don't know if any ND verticals surpass it. But no hz wells. [Yes, several/many vertical wells have surpassed this well in total production, but it's taken many more years in most cases.]

The Continental well Whitman 2-34H will probably pass this well eventually. It's at 1.64 million bbls, so not far behind. And it is 5 years older (2011 vs. 2006), so you can see a more rapid rise and outperformance at same point in life.

For the two wells at 72 months well age, the CLR well was at 1.59 million bbls vs 1.30 million bbls for the Petro-Hunt well at same well age. The CLR well was taken off line for almost a year in 2018, while other wells in the area were completed. But it is back on and has resumed growth, just fine. Even a little resting rebound from pressure buildup (I don't consider it halo effect). [Great observation, I agree.]

Presumably both of these monsters are lucky in some way tapping a large underground fracture or piece of conventional reservoir. They are in decent areas, but it's not like you see a pattern of several other millionaires near these wells. EOG on the other hand will get several millionaire wells from the Parshall.

Note that, per ShaleProfile.com, these are only the #2 and #3 hz wells in all the US. #1 is held by a 2014 EF well by Devon.
2nd of 3 notes:
Shaleprofile.com, my favorite peaker site (seriously) shows 13 ND hz wells at over 1 MM bo cum. I call this the millionaire club.

There are also some vertical millionaires, but he Shale Profile only tracks horizontals.

Of the group of 13, 6 of the wells are from Bowman county. I.e. Red River wells. So there are 7 Bakken/TF millionaires. Note, this is from APR data and one well was as close as 996,000 bo. So presumably at least one more Bakken millionaire has ascended by now.

I remember recent (well within last few years) discussions where the pushback on 1 MM cums was made that only 2 wells had achieved millionaire status yet. Those being the monster CLR and PetroHunt wells. But now it is more and more common, albeit of course still rare versus the average.

Also of course, should be noted those type curves were "BOE" which I agree is a monstrosity. Oil is what matters. Gas in ND is a nuisance.

Still net, net, it is interesting to watch more and more wells try like Hell and reach for Carousel. (Sorry Logan's Run flashback.)
3rd of 3 notes:
I couldn't help myself. Did a little more analysis. Based on APR data, the PH well is at 1.713 versus the CLR well at 1.650. So that's a lead of 63,000 bo that the CLR well has to catch up.

If you look at current production rate, CLR has a much higher rate, close to 300 bopd versus about 135 bopd for PH. Doing the high school math problem, that works out to about 60,000 bopd (110-50) that the CLR makes up per year. So in a little over a year, maybe May 2020, it ought to pass into the leader spot.

However, I think this is a little misleading as the CLR well was offline for a year and has had some "resting rebound" (post shutin jump). If you just (by eye) extrapolate, it probably ought to be doing about 200 bopd right now. That's still better than the PH, but means it would take about 2.6 years to catch up. In addition, it appears CLR is doing more work in this area so additional shutins (to frack nearby wells) are possible. So about NOV2021.

I think the likely answer is closer to the conservative case, but maybe a tad more optimistic. If I had to bet, would say something like JUL 2021 for an over/under on when the CLR well passes the PH well.

When the CLR well hits #1 in the Bakken, I'm sure we will get some press release or the like. It is important to remember though, that CLR wells on average are not the best in the basin. They are so big they have some show ponies. But they are an average per well producer in the Bakken. EOG, MRO, etc. are much more distinguished in being mostly in the sweet spots. I love me some Harold, but sometimes if you just look at press releases and slide decks, you miss this. But looking at average well production, it's very clear. Not bad, not good. About in the middle. Almost like a proxy for the whole basin (good and bad), given it has a mix of acreage.

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